Pakistan : An International Migraine

Apparently, US leaders are beginning to describe Pakistan as an international migraine. While American politicos may be good at pithy phrases, let us take due note that the greatest amount of migraine pain is felt right between the eyes (which is where the unhappy Pakistani populace is positioned) and the next degree of excruciating pain is above the two eyes. It is just above one eye that we in India are located. When one of your eyes is on fire, clever and pithy phrases are not of much help. We need poultices and medicines that act swiftly and effectively to control, reduce and eliminate the ailment. The question is what kind of medicine and treatments are best for us.

Illustration: Jayachandran / Mint

We could attack Pakistan. Many of our inane and banal TV channels keep talking about this as if they want to make it a self-fulfilling prophecy despite their pretensions to injured innocence: “We are only reporting possibilities”... Like hell...why keep on harping on this dangerous and borderline lunatic set of possibilities? The Pakistani TV channels are a darn sight worse than ours. They love the macho positioning of the brave Pakistani David taking on the unreasonable Indian Goliath. The self-evident absurdity of their position does not bother them one bit. The way they deal with today’s version of the Reichstag fire makes Nazi propagandists look reasonable guys.

The Pakistani military, of course, has been the net gainer. It can now walk away from commitments to the US to take on the agents of terror on the western border of the country and reinstate its Islamist credentials which Musharraf had left badly tattered. An attack on Pakistan, if unsuccessful, would leave our migraine uncured, maybe even increase it. If successful, it could result in Pakistan disintegrating.

The only two countries that Pakistanis of all persuasions are likely to listen to are China and Saudi Arabia

When that happens, the epicentre of the migraine would get fully and properly transferred to us, resting right in the middle of the Indian forehead.

An attack on Pakistan would not be a medicine for us—it could be a dangerous poison. What are we then to do, given that the Pakistani pack—Zardari, Gilani, Nawaz Sharif, Kiyani and their low TV anchors—simply do not get it? It is true that we are suffering. But they are the ones likely to be killed as this migraine metastasizes into a full-blown malignant tumour. Indian suffering, while bad, will be nothing like the catastrophic consequences that the children of Zardari and Co. will face as their country implodes and turns into a Somalia or Sudan. Is this what they want? Can they not see their inexorable movement toward such an abyss? At this point in time, we can only conclude that they do not see it, or they choose not to see it.

So, here we are with a neighbour stuck with a migraine that is fast turning into malignancy and the pain radiates and troubles us no end. If we tell them to take medicines, we are dismissed as adversarial infidels. We have no credibility with any section of Pakistan. That we may be right is irrelevant. Cassandra was right; the Trojans did not believe her.

Will the Pakistanis react positively to inputs and pressure from the US? At this stage, I doubt it. Pakistani leaders are worried that the US might hang their “friends” out to dry. After all, their friend Zia died mysteriously; their friend Benazir’s death was a spectacle; their friend Musharraf is on forced vacation in Pakistani-style “house arrest” behind high walls. Besides, bullying tactics can only get you so far. At the end of the day, one needs a measure of acquiescence and cooperation from the bullied which just is not forthcoming. All Pakistani leaders are willing to take American money. None can or will deliver their end of the bargain.

If we want the patient to cooperate in taking the prescribed medicine, the choice of the doctor seems to be key. The only two doctors that Pakistanis of whatever hue are likely to listen to are China and Saudi Arabia. They have credibility; they are not the enemy like India; they are not unreliable bullies like the US. What is the quid pro quo we can offer China and Saudi Arabia? Till now, we have been hesitant to let China invest in our infrastructure space. Why not invite them in by, for instance, offering the Chinese Sovereign Wealth Fund 20% minority stakes in the Mumbai and Delhi airports and in the Bangalore and Hyderabad metros? Similarly, why not offer the Saudis 20% minority stake in ONGC and Indian Oil? At one stroke, they both will develop a vested interest in preventing terrorist attacks in India and, trust me, between the two of them they have enough clout to bring all sections of the Pakistani leadership to heel.

PS: The security situation in Pakistan has deteriorated considerably after this article was written. Swat Valley, an area untouched by the Taliban, is now under their sway.

Jaithirth Rao is an entrepreneur and writer. Your comments are welcome at theirview@livemint.com