Venkatesan Vembu
Sunday, September 14, 2008 03:58 IST
The NSG waiver for India upsets China’s geo-strategic position, and it will do anything to protect it, says Venkatesan Vembu from Hong Kong
In traditional Chinese opera, performers employ a theatrical device known as bian lian or “face-changing”, where the artist wears layers of masks and, with every flip of his head, changes his mask in rapid succession to reveal a seamless range of emotions.
Last fortnight in Vienna, China demonstrated that face-changing isn’t a dying art. After indicating for months that it would pose no hurdle to India’s attempts to secure a waiver at the NSG, China ‘changed its face’ and attempted at the last minute to ambush the deal; but sensing the emerging consensus view in favour of the waiver, it flipped its mask again and fell in line. Analysts believe that since the NSG decision has skewed China’s geo-strategic calculus, it will do whatever it takes to protect its interests - even if the mask comes off. “To the extent that the nuclear deal has brought India and the US strategically closer, China has reason to worry,” says DS Rajan, director of the Chennai Centre for China Studies.
Strategic journals in China have been taking a hawkish line projecting “India’s nuclear policy” as a “threat to China’s security” and challenge to the non-proliferation regime.
“China tried to derail the deal because it sees it as an anti-China arrangement,” says Gordon G. Chang, author of The Coming Collapse of China. “But it was not in a position to stop it.” Chang reckons that China will now do its best to get the US Congress to spike the deal. “Although China doesn’t have much leverage in Congress, the non-proliferation lobby in the US does, and China will be looking to fund that lobby.”
Showing posts with label NSG Waiver. Show all posts
Showing posts with label NSG Waiver. Show all posts
Wednesday, September 17, 2008
Monday, September 8, 2008
Rs 100000cr carrot behind the waiver
R. SURYAMURTHY & JAYANTA ROY CHOWDHURY
New Delhi, Sept. 7: A sum of Rs 100,000 crore that is up for grabs in deals may have helped India bag the Nuclear Suppliers Group waiver.
New Delhi has drawn up plans under which the state-run Nuclear Power Corporation of India Ltd (NPCIL) and National Thermal Power Corporation Ltd (NTPC) are to set up a string of nuclear power plants — 15 by 2020 that will add 20,000MW to the current 3,300MW.
Global nuclear power plant manufacturers and domestic engineering giants are expected to harvest the bounty of the nuclear commerce the Indo-US deal will offer.
Areva SA and Alstom of France, General Electric of the US, Toshiba Corp’s Westinghouse Electric Co (based in the US), and Russia’s atomic energy agency Rosatom are among the global firms likely to get most of the contracts. Diplomats of these nations were in the forefront of lobbying for the deal at the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and the NSG.
The Centre might make it mandatory for nuclear reactor suppliers to get at least 30 per cent of their equipment from India, analysts said.
“The volume of business to be generated in nuclear power plant construction is huge since the cost of construction per MW of nuclear power is about Rs 7 crore and we are talking of adding 20,000MW by 2020,” said Arvind Mahajan, executive director of KPMG, a financial services firm.
Planning Commission officials said the Atomic Energy Act might be amended to allow Indian private-sector players – such as the Tatas, Anil Ambani’s Reliance Energy, GMR and Essar – to enter the sector and global players to take up small stakes in these plants.
Indian law now allows only the state-run NPCIL to set up and run nuclear power plants. Amendments lying with the cabinet permit any public sector company to enter the sector. At the time these were drafted, the Left was an ally of the government and would not have been keen on private participation. That has changed now, especially with the Samajwadi Party on board.
Still, analysts said, it may not be feasible to open the sector completely to private companies given the stringent international safeguards.
NPCIL plans to set up four power plants and has selected sites in Gujarat, Andhra Pradesh, Orissa and Bengal.
The NTPC, which is into thermal power generation, is also planning to diversify into nuclear energy and plans to add 2,000MW of nuclear energy by 2012.
Other than the NTPC, the state-owned Bharat Heavy Electriclas Ltd (Bhel) and several private players could benefit from the spillover effect of nuclear commerce. Bhel plans to spend Rs 1,500 crore over the next two years building plants to supply components for 1,600MW-capacity reactors, sources said.
Engineering firm Larsen & Toubro, construction houses Gammon and Hindustan Construction Company and power equipment company ABB are expected to benefit.
Kuljit Singh, energy analyst with Ernst and Young, however, said: “There is very little for Indian firms to benefit at this juncture since the sector is not open to private players. Most of the equipment for the power plants would be supplied by global leaders.”
New Delhi, Sept. 7: A sum of Rs 100,000 crore that is up for grabs in deals may have helped India bag the Nuclear Suppliers Group waiver.
New Delhi has drawn up plans under which the state-run Nuclear Power Corporation of India Ltd (NPCIL) and National Thermal Power Corporation Ltd (NTPC) are to set up a string of nuclear power plants — 15 by 2020 that will add 20,000MW to the current 3,300MW.
Global nuclear power plant manufacturers and domestic engineering giants are expected to harvest the bounty of the nuclear commerce the Indo-US deal will offer.
Areva SA and Alstom of France, General Electric of the US, Toshiba Corp’s Westinghouse Electric Co (based in the US), and Russia’s atomic energy agency Rosatom are among the global firms likely to get most of the contracts. Diplomats of these nations were in the forefront of lobbying for the deal at the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and the NSG.
The Centre might make it mandatory for nuclear reactor suppliers to get at least 30 per cent of their equipment from India, analysts said.
“The volume of business to be generated in nuclear power plant construction is huge since the cost of construction per MW of nuclear power is about Rs 7 crore and we are talking of adding 20,000MW by 2020,” said Arvind Mahajan, executive director of KPMG, a financial services firm.
Planning Commission officials said the Atomic Energy Act might be amended to allow Indian private-sector players – such as the Tatas, Anil Ambani’s Reliance Energy, GMR and Essar – to enter the sector and global players to take up small stakes in these plants.
Indian law now allows only the state-run NPCIL to set up and run nuclear power plants. Amendments lying with the cabinet permit any public sector company to enter the sector. At the time these were drafted, the Left was an ally of the government and would not have been keen on private participation. That has changed now, especially with the Samajwadi Party on board.
Still, analysts said, it may not be feasible to open the sector completely to private companies given the stringent international safeguards.
NPCIL plans to set up four power plants and has selected sites in Gujarat, Andhra Pradesh, Orissa and Bengal.
The NTPC, which is into thermal power generation, is also planning to diversify into nuclear energy and plans to add 2,000MW of nuclear energy by 2012.
Other than the NTPC, the state-owned Bharat Heavy Electriclas Ltd (Bhel) and several private players could benefit from the spillover effect of nuclear commerce. Bhel plans to spend Rs 1,500 crore over the next two years building plants to supply components for 1,600MW-capacity reactors, sources said.
Engineering firm Larsen & Toubro, construction houses Gammon and Hindustan Construction Company and power equipment company ABB are expected to benefit.
Kuljit Singh, energy analyst with Ernst and Young, however, said: “There is very little for Indian firms to benefit at this juncture since the sector is not open to private players. Most of the equipment for the power plants would be supplied by global leaders.”
Sunday, September 7, 2008
NSG waiver: India issues demarche to China
Press Trust of India
Sunday, September 07, 2008, (New Delhi)
In the midst of the tense negotiations at Vienna where China created problems in the waiver in the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG), India had conveyed its unhappiness to Beijing through a demarche.
Informed sources said that India made known its disappointment to China which had joined hold-out countries --Austria, New Zealand, Ireland and Switzerland -- who wanted their concerns to be reflected in the waiver.
India got the waiver after a consensus among NSG members at the end of five rounds of negotiations and a statement by External Affairs Minister Pranab Mukherjee re-affirming India's strong commitment to non-proliferation goals.
Mukherjee had also assured the global community that India remained committed to a voluntary, unilateral moratorium on nuclear testing. The tough negotiations at Vienna went down to the wire after China, which had sounded positive in the run-up to the NSG meeting, took a different line creating problems for a consensus on the waiver.
The Chinese team finally veered around after US President George W Bush spoke to his Chinese counterpart Hu Jintao. This issue is expected to come up during talks Chinese Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi will have tomorrow with External Affairs Minister Pranab Mukherjee.
Yang will also call on Prime Minister Manmohan Singh. India, which was surprised by China's stand on the Indo-US nuclear deal at the NSG meeting and will convey its disappointment to the visiting Chinese Foreign Minister.
National Security Adviser (NSA) M K Narayanan had said India was surprised by China's stand on the Indo-US nuclear deal at the NSG meeting.
Sunday, September 07, 2008, (New Delhi)
In the midst of the tense negotiations at Vienna where China created problems in the waiver in the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG), India had conveyed its unhappiness to Beijing through a demarche.
Informed sources said that India made known its disappointment to China which had joined hold-out countries --Austria, New Zealand, Ireland and Switzerland -- who wanted their concerns to be reflected in the waiver.
India got the waiver after a consensus among NSG members at the end of five rounds of negotiations and a statement by External Affairs Minister Pranab Mukherjee re-affirming India's strong commitment to non-proliferation goals.
Mukherjee had also assured the global community that India remained committed to a voluntary, unilateral moratorium on nuclear testing. The tough negotiations at Vienna went down to the wire after China, which had sounded positive in the run-up to the NSG meeting, took a different line creating problems for a consensus on the waiver.
The Chinese team finally veered around after US President George W Bush spoke to his Chinese counterpart Hu Jintao. This issue is expected to come up during talks Chinese Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi will have tomorrow with External Affairs Minister Pranab Mukherjee.
Yang will also call on Prime Minister Manmohan Singh. India, which was surprised by China's stand on the Indo-US nuclear deal at the NSG meeting and will convey its disappointment to the visiting Chinese Foreign Minister.
National Security Adviser (NSA) M K Narayanan had said India was surprised by China's stand on the Indo-US nuclear deal at the NSG meeting.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
Posts
