China’s mask comes off

Venkatesan Vembu
Sunday, September 14, 2008 03:58 IST


The NSG waiver for India upsets China’s geo-strategic position, and it will do anything to protect it, says Venkatesan Vembu from Hong Kong

In traditional Chinese opera, performers employ a theatrical device known as bian lian or “face-changing”, where the artist wears layers of masks and, with every flip of his head, changes his mask in rapid succession to reveal a seamless range of emotions.

Last fortnight in Vienna, China demonstrated that face-changing isn’t a dying art. After indicating for months that it would pose no hurdle to India’s attempts to secure a waiver at the NSG, China ‘changed its face’ and attempted at the last minute to ambush the deal; but sensing the emerging consensus view in favour of the waiver, it flipped its mask again and fell in line. Analysts believe that since the NSG decision has skewed China’s geo-strategic calculus, it will do whatever it takes to protect its interests - even if the mask comes off. “To the extent that the nuclear deal has brought India and the US strategically closer, China has reason to worry,” says DS Rajan, director of the Chennai Centre for China Studies.

Strategic journals in China have been taking a hawkish line projecting “India’s nuclear policy” as a “threat to China’s security” and challenge to the non-proliferation regime.
“China tried to derail the deal because it sees it as an anti-China arrangement,” says Gordon G. Chang, author of The Coming Collapse of China. “But it was not in a position to stop it.” Chang reckons that China will now do its best to get the US Congress to spike the deal. “Although China doesn’t have much leverage in Congress, the non-proliferation lobby in the US does, and China will be looking to fund that lobby.”