PAKISTAN is a country in chaos. The extremist threat is growing, the grip of the fragile democratic government loosening, and the economy is in tatters. The army — a nest of nationalist suspicion over the aims of nuclear rival India — is severely compromised. There are very real worries the country could soon collapse.
This attack on the visiting Sri Lankan cricket team in Lahore is the latest marker of Pakistan's downward spiral.
Like the bomb that flattened the Marriott Hotel in Islamabad in September, or the assassination of Benazir Bhutto the year before, yesterday's strike is a clear sign that Pakistan is the world's most dangerous hot spot. But the tangle of problems inside Pakistan has an enormous impact on the wider region — indeed, the world.
The rampage in India's commercial capital, Mumbai, in November was blamed on militants abetted from across the border. The terrorist cell that struck London's transport network in 2005 trained in Pakistan — and the Taliban in Afghanistan have carved out a haven in Pakistan's restive tribal lands.
Finding the culprit behind yesterday's attack is no easy task. With so many conflicts swirling around both the targets and the location, the accusations will be fierce.
Suspicion will naturally fall on the Tamil Tigers, fighting for an independent homeland in Sri Lanka but facing annihilation after recent military setbacks.
It would be an act of extreme desperation for the Tigers to attack the national team, let alone in Pakistan, said to be a source of arms for the rebel movement. Nor have the Tigers typically carried out attacks abroad, barring the 1991 assassination of former Indian prime minister Rajiv Gandhi.
Others will reach into Pakistan's murky political scene to find blame, pointing the finger at supporters of Nawaz Sharif, Pakistan's former prime minister. Lahore is a Sharif stronghold, and only last week he was again banned from holding office. Sharif blames the ruling on President Asif Ali Zardari, widower of Bhutto and a bitter political rival.
The spectre of Lashkar-e-Taiba — the most notorious Islamist group in the region and blamed for the shootings in Mumbai — will also hang in the air. But most likely, the so-called Pakistan Taliban will be the focus of concern.
The malignant spread of this extremist movement is the greatest threat to Pakistan's stability. It springs from capricious efforts over decades by hardliners in the Pakistan military to exploit Islamist ideology to fight proxy wars, against India in the disputed territory of Kashmir or in an attempt to control Afghanistan.
Now the extremists have turned against the Government in Islamabad.
Sensitivity over US missile attacks against suspected Taliban and al-Qaeda hide-outs in the border lands near Afghanistan fuels their rage.
The Pakistan Taliban are not yet a co-ordinated movement guided by a single objective, but they will attack when and where the opportunity presents.
Claude Rakisits is an Australian-born security specialist based in Geneva who has spent the past fortnight in Pakistan talking with officials and academics. He has watched Pakistan over many years, and says there is now a real sense of political crisis in the country. "All these attacks also confirm that the Pakistan security apparatus is not managing to deal effectively with the security situation," Mr Rakisits says.
"The aim of the Taliban militants is to destabilise the Pakistani state. Unfortunately, they are being assisted indirectly by the politicians who are too busy fighting among each other."
Australian Foreign Minister Stephen Smith last week called Pakistan one of the most strategically important countries in the world. He is right. But the world needs to appreciate that Pakistan is a country perilously close to breaking down.
Posts
No comments:
Post a Comment